According to new age energy source - the future situation of global energy development. In view of this, we reviewed the history of energy use and understood that new energy sources will usher in a new era following oil & gas, coal and wood one after another in the past time. Although the fossil energy sources are still plenty in the world, great breakthroughs made in some key technologies and the increasing demand for ecological environmental protection both impel the third time of transformation from oil & gas to new energy sources.
NOTE: Sooner or later, oil, gas, coal and new energy sources will each account for a quarter of global energy consumption in the new era, specifically speaking, accounting for 32.6%, 23.7%, 30.0% and 13.7% respectively. As one of the largest coal consumer, China will inevitably face up to the situation of tripartite confrontation of the coal, oil & gas and new energy.
The following forecasting results were achieved. First, the oil will be in a stable period and its annual production peak will be around 2040, reaching up to 45 × 108 t. Second, the natural gas will enter the heyday period and its annual production peak will be around 2060, reaching up to 4.5 × 1012 m3, which will play a pivotal role in the future energy sustainable development. Third, the coal has entered a high-to-low-carbon transition period, and its direct use and the discharged pollutants will be significantly reduced. In 2050, the coal will be dropped to 25% of the primary energy mix. Last, the development and utilization of new energy sources has been getting into the golden age and its proportion in the primary energy mix will be substantially enhanced. On this basis, we presented some proposals for the future energy development in China.
At first, we should understand well that China's energy production and consumption has its own characteristics. Under the present situation, we should strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal resources, which is the key to solving our energy and environmental issues.
Then, under the low oil price circumstance, we should keep 200 million tons of annual oil production as “the bottom line” so as to ensure national energy security and to accelerate tight gas, shale gas and other unconventional resources development. In 2030, the annual natural gas production will reach up to more than 300 Bcm.
Finally, the development and utilization of new energy resources should be further strengthened and non-fossil energy sources will be expected to reach as high as 20% of the primary energy consumption by 2030.
The development of unconventional oil and gas resources has reshaped the traditional layout of oil and gas resources.
The recoverable amount of conventional oil and gas in the world is 4878 × 108 t and 471 × 1012 m3, respectively, and they are mainly concentrated in four regions: the Middle East (35%), Russia (14%), North America (13%) and South America (9%). Since 2000, with understanding and technological levels increasing, large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas has been realized, with North America as the representative.
The potential of unconventional oil and gas has been re-recognized. According to the latest estimate, the recoverable amount of global unconventional oil resources is 6200 × 108 t, roughly the same as conventional oil resources; the recoverable amount of unconventional gas resources is about 4000 × 1012 m3, roughly eight times that of conventional gas resources, and it is mainly concentrated in four regions with rich unconventional oil and gas resources, i.e. North America (34%), Asia–Pacific (23%), South America (14%) and Russia (13%)
The world annual oil production peak will be around 2040-
By virtue of innovations in theories, techniques and methods, the “peak theory” suggested by Hubbert in 1956 has been subverted. The peak of oil production in the world is increasing and the time for peak keeps extending, probably into the mid-21st century. The life cycle of world oil industry is likely to be more than 300 years. Since 1986, the world oil production has shown a general steady growth. The forecast that allows for multiple factors shows that the peak of oil production will be around 2040 at about 45 × 108t
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